How do environmental and economic crises shape reform prospects in Iran?

• A. They have no impact on reform prospects.
• B. They always lead to immediate liberalization.
• C. They heighten demand for reform but also empower hardliners who promise stability and regime survival.
• D. They eliminate the possibility of any reform.

Answer: (C)

Crises shape reform prospects by creating both pressure for change and incentives for the regime to preserve its hold on power. When environmental problems like severe drought and water shortages, along with economic distress from sanctions, unemployment, and inflation, bite hard, people demand solutions and better governance. That heightens the appeal of reforms that could show responsiveness and improve living conditions.

At the same time, those same crises empower hardliners who stress stability and regime survival. They argue that rapid, sweeping changes could threaten the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy or provoke instability, so they push for controlled, incremental reforms or for sticking to the status quo while offering security and continuity. This dynamic means reform efforts are often gradual and carefully framed to avoid provoking backlash or undermining the regime, rather than producing a straightforward liberalization.

So environmental and economic crises don’t just push for change; they also embolden factions that resist substantial reform, resulting in a nuanced, uneven reform landscape.